Oakland & Alameda County Minimum Wage Study

In March 2026, a coalition of community organizations proposed a ballot measure to raise the minimum wage in Alameda County, California to $30 by 2030 for large employers and janitorial firms, by 2035 for medium-sized employers, and by 2037 for small employers. Movement Economics conducted a comprehensive study of the economic impact this proposed minimum wage policy would have if adopted by the City of Oakland and if adopted by all of Alameda County. We apply a nationally recognized model developed by the UC Berkeley Center for Wage and Employment Dynamics (CWED) and the UC Berkeley Labor Center that has been used to produce prospective studies of the impacts of minimum wage policies, living wage policies, and industry wage standards for local and state governments across the country. Using this model, we estimate the likely impact of the proposed minimum wage policy on worker earnings, employer operating costs, consumer prices, employment, the size of the local economy, and government tax revenues.

Our report describes the results of this study as well as the methods and data sources used to produce them. Our findings suggest that raising the minimum wage in Oakland and/or Alameda County would increase earnings for a large group of workers while having a negligible effect on employment, the size of the local economy, and tax revenues. If all jurisdictions within the County adopted the minimum wage policy simultaneously, more than four times as many workers would experience an increase in their earnings compared to a policy that would only cover the City of Oakland. Our findings are consistent with a large body of research on the impacts of local minimum wage policies.